When the Obama regime engineered the overthrow of the governments of Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt during the much ballyhooed “Arab Spring” the administration did not have a strategic or geopolitical goal in mind, rather it was carried out strictly in the service of domestic politics. Obama wanted to prove that he was the “anti-Bush.” He wanted to demonstrate the efficacy of “smart power.” And he wanted to be able to wage war on the cheap– war via drones and air strikes and proxy armies — that could overthrow regimes he didn’t like and replace them with friendly (or non-malign) regimes without the monetary or political cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
So far it has worked really well. Libya has transformed from a totalitarian hell-hole to an Islamic terrorist hell-hole. Egypt went from a pliable military dictatorship to an Islamic dictatorship and back to an military dictatorship, albeit one that doesn’t trust us and owes us nothing. Syria’s Assad still stands but the effort to take him down have destabilized the entire region and created a humanitarian crisis of truly epic proportions. This brings us back to the little country that started it all: Tunisia:
Nearly four years after the Arab Spring revolt, Tunisia remains its lone success as chaos engulfs much of the region. But that is not its only distinction: Tunisia has sent more foreign fighters than any other country to Iraq and Syria to join the extremist group that calls itself the Islamic State.
Woo hoo! Win!
There are some interesting takeaways in this story. The Islamist movement seems to be taking on more of an eschatological bent, looking at the ongoing struggle through the lens of end times rather than necessarily striving towards an actual physical regime. The establishment of a Caliphate is viewed in the way some Christian fundamentalists view Israel. ISIS seems to be actively marketing the availability of family life to young men who see this as being out of their reach.
******************* “You have no responsibility to live up to what other people think you ought to accomplish. I have no responsibility to be like they expect me to be. It's their mistake, not my failing.” ¯ Richard P. Feynman