BY JONATHAN ALLEN, December 20, 2015,

There’s something the chattering classes along the Acela Corridor don’t want to say about Donald Trump: He’s the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination.

For the Republican Party’s conservative — in more ways than one — establishment, it’s as if admitting that will make it come true. So instead, they squabble over who the “real” front-runner is, whether it’s Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz. Perhaps, the parlor wisdom holds, a dark horse like Chris Christie can overtake the field at the New Hampshire turn.

For the first few months, the Trump deniers — loud on national television, insistent on Twitter and ever-present in the nation’s leading print and digital outlets — could be called wishful thinkers. With the primaries just around the corner, as many otherwise smart political analysts keep waiting, aching, for conventional order to be restored, it’s time to call them what they are: delusional.

Trump is leading national polls by more than 20 points in a field with more than a dozen candidates. Nor is this just a Rudy Giuliani-style lead that doesn’t translate to state contests.

He’s sitting on a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, holds a 20-point edge in South Carolina and runs 27 points ahead of his nearest competitor in Georgia. Though he’s probably going to lose Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus to Cruz, who’s leading in the polls there, Trump could finish a strong second.

He’s first or near it in Nevada, Florida, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio. He’s in the lead in nearly every state that has been polled. All those leads have held up after a dozen predicted collapses.

To anyone looking honestly at the hard numbers, Trump’s lead in the Republican primary looks a lot like Hillary Clinton’s in the Democratic primary. And no one is debating who will “really win” on the Democratic side.

The early theories of Trump’s impending demise (some of which I once subscribed to) have, one by one, fallen apart: He’ll implode by offending someone, he’ll top out at 25% or the establishment vote will coalesce around Rubio or another candidate.

One of the few remaining wishful notions is that Trump will be pierced by losing Iowa and fade when supporters realize he’s not the winner he claims to be.

Could it happen? Sure. It’s within the realm of possibility that, after telling pollsters The Donald is the one, voters will pick other candidates when they go to the real polls. The anti-Trump vote could consolidate early enough to deny him plurality victories in winner-take-all primary states.

But both those scenarios get less and less likely with each passing week as Trump and his supporters see that the brass ring is really in reach.

snip

It’s understandable that Republican elites are mortified. A guy they can’t control is taking dead aim at many party orthodoxies, and profiting in the process. A few months ago, GOP insiders regarded a brokered convention as a nightmare. Now, to many, it’s more like a daydream.

Trump is currently far better positioned to win the nomination than any other candidate. GOP leaders, and the pundits who repeat their arguments, can dance around that fact all they want. But they can no longer credibly deny it.

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/jonat...ticle-1.2470833

Quote: conservgramma wrote in post #2

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I have to wonder as some recent stories are indicating, just how big a lead Trump really may have. I tend to agree the polling data may be underestimating it because they are not polling Democrats who may be crossing over as they did for Reagan.

Which begs the question, which states he is polling well ahead of everyone are open primary states?

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