-May 22, 6:04 PM EDT
US government to review mystery of slow 1st quarter growth
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- There's something strange about the U.S. economy in the first three months of every year: It frequently grows at a much slower pace than in the other nine months.

And on Friday, the government agency charged with calculating the economy's growth rate said it would adjust its methods in an effort to resolve the problem.

The changes could paint a much different picture of the economy's recent performance. Concerns flared when the government said late last month that the economy expanded just 0.2 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter. But many economists have challenged the government's data, and some have argued the first-quarter figure should be as high as 1.8 percent instead.

At issue is a process known as "seasonal adjustment," which is not nearly as convoluted as it sounds. Many routine patterns affect the economy, such as the layoff of temporary retail employees after the winter holidays, or a spike in consumer spending around Easter. Seasonal adjustment attempts to factor out those patterns to get a clearer picture of how the economy is actually performing.

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More:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/U...-05-22-18-04-22


The motto of the BEA:
"see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evli"



Perhaps government deficit spending need to be ramped up since it is included in the GDP.


,

BEA word of the day: residual seasonality

Announcement from the BEA
2015.05.20

"BEA is currently examining GDP components for residual seasonality, which may lead to improved seasonal adjustment methods. For example, BEA has recently recognized the possibility of residual seasonality in its measure of federal government defense services spending"
http://blog.bea.gov/2015/05/20/accountin...onality-in-gdp/

Quote: ThirstyMan wrote in post #3

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"...it would adjust its methods in an effort to resolve the problem."

so it's merely a presentation problem, is that it? add some QE to the equation to fix it, why don't you?

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