October 2, 2014
Ebola and Chaos Theory

By Sally Zelikovsky

Editor's note: The New York Times has confirmed that Thomas Eric Duncan "had direct contact with a woman stricken by Ebola on Sept. 15, just four days before he left Liberia for the United States[.]"

* * *

But we have soothed ourselves into imagining sudden change as something that happens outside the normal order of things. ... We do not conceive of sudden, radical, irrational change as built into the very fabric of existence. Yet it is.

–Ian Malcolm, in Michael Crichton’s Jurassic Park

Deadly outbreaks begin when a nasty virus finds a victim and then, because of the frequency and intimacy of human interaction, handily spreads from one subject to the other through the air or those convenient bodily fluids. Once it begins, it is hard to contain. The public health system – no matter how sophisticated and prepared – will always be vulnerable, because it is run and implemented by fallible human beings. One mistake, or series of mistakes, can change lives in a heartbeat. We witnessed this in Dallas, where, instead of erring on the side of caution and isolating a patient exhibiting Ebola-like symptoms who told authorities he had traveled to West Africa, the hospital sent him home, because somewhere in the chain of communication, a decision-maker was not told he had been to the region.

According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, "It was a mistake. They dropped the ball." "You don't want to pile on them, but hopefully this will never happen again." Warm words that will be cold comfort if this deadliest of viruses gains a foothold in this country.

Actually, we should pile on the public health system. This isn’t a careless mistake on a math test or a fender-bender in the parking lot. This is one of those horrific train wrecks you see play out in slow motion. I can just hear Obama saying, “Mistakes were made. Lives were lost. But we’ve grown stronger and learned some valuable lessons.” Or “Yes, I think my experts underestimated the strength of this virus and its potential for disaster.”

It was not long ago that our President reassured us:

Zitat

---

The chances of an Ebola outbreak here in the United States are extremely low. We've been taking the necessary precautions, including working with countries in West Africa to increase screening at airports so that someone with the virus doesn't get on a plane for the United States. In the unlikely event that someone with Ebola does reach our shores, we've taken new measures so that we are prepared here at home.

---

Well, low chances or not, Ebola did reach our shores, the patient did get on a plane, and we were caught with our pants way down on the home front. This virus doesn’t discriminate, can’t be stopped by 3,000 boots on the ground, and spreads exponentially. There are no do-overs. Is it not surprising we saw the same scenario play out with the Secret Service dropping the ball when Omar Gonzalez stormed the White House? There are longstanding procedures in place for almost every foreseeable contingency for the president’s security, and one goof-up could have resulted in him being shot.

In all aspects of life on Earth, there are unpredictable and unanticipated factors that can change expectant outcomes. The smart person prepares for all foreseeable contingencies, recognizing that you-know-what happens, but you do your best to prevent it. So far, the CDC and our public health system are not doing their best.

Read more: American Thinker