Wall Street Journal

Zitat

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The NCAA has learned that the best way to bring order to a sprawling and unwieldy field of contenders is to divide the teams into regional quadrants, where the teams face off against less challenging foes before moving on to more difficult matchups. As the largest field of potential candidates in modern political history begins to emerge, this could work just as well for handicapping the GOP primary season.

Good campaign managers — like good coaches — know it’s not possible to devise a tournament strategy that can predict the possible matchups with so many potential competitors. It is better first to prepare for those opponents with similar backgrounds, and then move onto a Final Four against candidates representing the other ideological quadrants of the Republican Party.

An early scouting report cannot perfectly predict the final outcome. But one candidate from each of these four regions will almost certainly be represented when the field narrows after the first few primaries. (And good luck with your own selections. But remember that, in an era of super PACs, the office pool has become much, much more expensive.)

Eastern Establishment Regional

1. Jeb Bush – GOP dynasty produces another blue-chipper. Pedigree, policy chops makes him favorite, but faces challenge from upstarts.

2. Marco Rubio – Would have been seeded lower earlier in the season, but Romney withdrawal and smart foreign policy talk moves him up.

3. Chris Christie – Was pre-season favorite in this regional, but tough stretch in home games could make him #4 seed before tourney starts.

4. Lindsey Graham – No one thought he’d make the field this year, but ISIS threat and his national security credibility make him a spoiler.

Midwestern Manager Regional

1. Scott Walker – Aggressive young challenger earns kudos for big early-season win over unions. But new to tournament pressure.

2. Rick Perry – May belong in Southern/Western regional, but Perry 2.0 sounds more like a business/manager type than a grassroots populist.

3. John Kasich – Critics think seed is too high, but has two big Ohio wins. Unconventional approach is tough for opponents to defend.

4. Mike Pence – Dark horse with huge upside if he decides to get in. Excellent fundamentals, but it’s hard to tell if his heart’s in the game.

Southern Faith-Based Regional

1. Mike Huckabee – Old-school veteran may return to try to capture past glory. His tried-and true playbook will be tested under new rules.

2. Bobby Jindal – Everybody’s favorite freshman is an upperclassman now. New sharp-edged offense could get him past first-year stumbles.

3. Rick Santorum – Was runner-up against much weaker field in ’12 tournament. Can he step up his game against stronger competition?

4. Ben Carson – Fan favorite will provide thrills in early round matchups. But rookie may lack fundamentals to go all the way.

Western Rebellion Regional

1. Rand Paul – Kentuckian has Western attitude, even without geographic fit. New but untested offense makes him wild card.

2. Ted Cruz – Lots of interest from flashy early-season play. Challenge gets tougher against more talented opponents who know his moves.

3. Carly Fiorina – Long-shot in the field, but private sector credentials and gender get her seeded. Good experience for future tourney.

4. Brian Sandoval – Not much depth in West after top seeds, so Latino Nevada governor gets last bid based on his strong VP potential.

Who wins the Final Four and goes on to the vaunted Hillary Challenge? We’ll have a much better idea once we see how the contenders perform in the early round.

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I sure will be glad when this "March Madness" business is over, because everything seems to be expressed in terms of "brackets."