James Antle, December 31, 2015

Jeb Bush's super PAC is attacking Chris Christie and John Kasich. Kasich is running an ad against Bush. Christie and Bush have been criticizing Marco Rubio on his Senate absenteeism, among other things.

In terms of national polling, this makes little sense. Three of the four of them are in the single digits. Their combined RealClearPoliticspolling average would just barely overtake Ben Carson for fourth place. Rubio is in third all by himself, but as Republican consultant Stuart Stevens notes, Bush could take a quarter of his vote and still lose.

Look to New Hampshire and the picture is clearer. Rubio is a distant second place. Christie and Kasich are both double-digit performers who aren't far behind. Bush is in striking distance of punching the first and perhaps final ticket out of the first primary state.

All of them are competing for a similar slice of voters. He who wins them could see Republican establishment money and institutional support line up behind his candidacy.

This is highly unusual. In a typical presidential year, the establishment coalesces around a candidate quickly. They're the establishment — that's what they do. It's the conservative vote that is hopelessly split among various flavors of conservatism.

There was supply-sider Jack Kemp versus Christian rightist Pat Robertson in 1988, green-eyeshade former free-market economist Phil Gramm versus the socially conservative populist firebrand Pat Buchanan in 1996, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney all vying for the conservative vote in 2008, Rick Santorum finally emerging from a merry-go-round of conservative Romney challengers in 2012.

In each of the above election cycles, the establishment candidate was clear and, except in 2008, the unambiguous front-runner in the national polls months before the first primary votes were cast. Even in 2000, when establishment favorite George W. Bush had a lot of movement conservative support himself, Steve Forbes couldn't get a clear shot at Bush's right flank thanks to the likes of Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer.

That dynamic is to some extent present this time around, especially in conservative credentials competition between Rubio and Ted Cruz, which may at some point prove decisive in the race. But after a promising early fundraising start by Bush never translated into similarly formidable poll numbers, the establishment jockeying has continued much later than usual.

Usually, the New Hampshire Union Leader is part of the conservatism contest. The influential newspaper endorsed Buchanan in 1996, Forbes in 2000 and Newt Gingrich in 2012. This time around, it has participated in the establishment jockeying by backing Christie.

snip

The establishment typically wins because it is united and well-funded while the right is divided and outgunned financially. Neither situation obtains this time around.

Bush is the only establishment candidate who has raised a considerable amount of money. Most of it came early and from donors who are now maxed out. It's not clear how much organization Christie has past New Hampshire.

By contrast, Cruz raised $20 million this past quarter alone. Ben Carson has been a prodigious fundraiser, although also a heavy spender. Trump hasn't had to spend much since the media covers him for free, but he's threatening to open his wallet in the coming weeks and money shouldn't be a problem for him.

So as much as candidates like Bush and Kasich might prefer to run against Trump — and there are no shortage of ads in which Jeb is presented as the only candidate who can take on Trump and ISIS — their most immediate obstacle is one another. The small towns of New Hampshire just aren't big enough for all of them.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/this-t...article/2579353